Global Trade Reset: Why Nigeria Is the Next Stop After China
By Benard I. Odoh
Every transformative reform emerges at the nexus of urgency and opportunity. For Nigeria, the proposed 30% Minimum Value-Addition Policy transcends bold ambition—it is a strategic response to a unique inflection point in global economic history. As worldwide supply chains undergo rapid reconfiguration due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and the transition to a post-oil economy, Nigeria faces a fleeting yet potent opportunity to redefine its industrial trajectory. The pressing question is not whether Nigeria can add value, but whether it will act decisively before this window closes.
Industrial shifts are occurring globally at an unprecedented pace. The United States has imposed tariffs of up to 145% on key Chinese imports, prompting multinational companies to seek alternative manufacturing bases that offer not just cost-effective labor, but also access to raw materials, regional markets, and political stability. Vietnam has already attracted over $18 billion in relocated industrial investment from companies like Samsung, which operates six manufacturing facilities and is completing a $220 million research and development center in Hanoi. Morocco, leveraging its vast phosphate reserves, now supplies fertilizers to over 30 African countries. Rwanda has gone beyond mining to refining tantalum, a critical mineral used in smartphones and electronics. Ethiopia, once primarily an exporter of raw cotton, is now shipping garments to Europe, Asia, and North America. These countries are not succeeding by chance, but by design. Their advantage lies in intentionality, not inheritance.
By every measure, Nigeria should be leading this wave of industrial migration. We possess abundant natural resources, a youthful and growing population, and a geostrategic location that places us at the heart of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the largest free trade bloc on the planet. Yet, despite these gifts, we continue to export cocoa, not chocolate; cassava, not ethanol; lithium, not batteries. This is not a failure of endowment but a failure of execution. The 30% Minimum Value-Addition Policy is our pathway to correcting this. It establishes a national threshold: no raw material shall leave Nigeria’s shores unless at least 30% of its value has been retained through local processing. Its implications are revolutionary. New factories will rise. Entire value chains will deepen. Millions of jobs will be created. Foreign exchange will be preserved. If properly executed, this single policy could increase the share of value-added exports from 12% to 45% by 2030, double manufacturing’s contribution to GDP from 8.2% to 18% by 2035, and create over 3 million new jobs across agro-processing, light manufacturing, and mineral beneficiation.
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But the clock is ticking. Investors are moving now. Trade routes are being redrawn now. AfCFTA’s preferential protocols are being finalized now. Delay is not a neutral act—it is a costly one. Every moment of hesitation allows competitors to deepen their infrastructure, lock in partnerships, and consolidate their presence in the very markets Nigeria seeks to penetrate. If we fail to pass this bill, underfund the implementation framework, or neglect the creation of value-chain clusters, we will not only forfeit global opportunities—we will become spectators to Africa’s industrial rise, exporting raw ambition and importing finished reality.
Urgency must replace rhetoric. Vision must marry velocity. The National Assembly deserves commendation for its sponsorship of this historic policy and must now make its passage a legislative priority. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must elevate this initiative to a national mission, aligned directly with his Renewed Hope Agenda. The Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC), under the visionary leadership of Professor Nnanyelugo Martin Ike-Muonso, has already provided the intellectual and strategic blueprint. Working with the African Development Bank (AfDB), RMRDC has developed a robust 10-year roadmap grounded in sectoral targets, regional clusters, and investment incentives. What is needed now is alignment—across government, industry, and finance.
All relevant ministries—Industry, Finance, Agriculture, Solid Minerals, Science and Technology—must collaborate, not compete. Financial institutions such as the Bank of Industry, Central Bank of Nigeria, Development Bank of Nigeria, and NIRSAL must unlock affordable capital for processors. Regulatory agencies like NEPC, NIPC, and Customs must eliminate friction and streamline approvals. Industry groups—MAN, NACCIMA, NASME—must bring private-sector innovation to bear in powering the last mile of transformation. To drive this, a National Value-Addition Taskforce should be constituted, co-chaired by RMRDC and AfDB, with representation from key agencies, private sector players, and research institutions. This taskforce should report quarterly to the Federal Executive Council and the National Assembly, using a real-time digital dashboard to track clusters activated, jobs created, products exported, and investments mobilized.
Let the targets be clear: ₦500 billion disbursed through an Industrial Growth Fund by 2028. Six sector-focused industrial parks operational across Nigeria by 2027. Twenty priority products processed and exported to ten AfCFTA partner countries by 2029. The 30% value-added benchmark fully enforced by the first quarter of 2026. These are not just numbers—they are instruments of national ambition.
Other nations have provided proof of what is possible. Vietnam moved from rice fields to semiconductor factories. Rwanda transformed coltan into refined tantalum exports. Morocco built a $5 billion fertilizer industry on phosphate rock. Ethiopia turned cotton into garments for the global fashion supply chain. Nigeria has more resources than each of these countries. But history does not reward resources—it rewards resolve. In the words of Lee Kuan Yew, “A nation is great not by its size alone. It is the will, the cohesion, the stamina, the discipline of its people and its leaders which ensure it an honourable place in history.” The time has come for Nigeria to prove its will.
As we close this five-part series, the message is clear. The global trade architecture is resetting. The question is no longer why Nigeria should be the next stop after China—it is how long we will take to realize it. The 30% Value-Addition Policy is not just a policy idea—it is the bridge between Nigeria’s raw material inheritance and its industrial destiny. If we seize this window, we will reshape not just how we trade, but how we grow, innovate, and thrive as a nation.
This is the moment to make it count. Because the world will not wait. As Winston Churchill once said, “To each, there comes in their lifetime a special moment when they are figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered the chance to do a very special thing. What a tragedy if that moment finds them unprepared or unqualified.” Nigeria has been tapped. The question is—are we ready to answer?
The global trade reset has begun. Nigeria must not just join it. Nigeria must lead it.
