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By Benard I. Odoh
Editor’s Note: This article marks the beginning of a special 5-part daily series, running from Monday to Friday. Each installment will explore how the shifting currents of global trade, investment flows, and geopolitical dynamics are opening unprecedented industrial opportunities for Nigeria. Join me each evening as we unpack the data, the policy, the players — and the pathway for Nigeria to finally emerge as Africa’s industrial powerhouse.
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On April 2, 2025, the global economic chessboard shifted dramatically. In a televised White House announcement, U.S. President Donald J. Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff regime: a universal 10% tax on all imports into the United States, accompanied by punitive tariffs reaching up to 145% on key Chinese goods such as electric vehicles, steel, semiconductors, aluminum, and solar panels. The move signaled more than just America’s trade policy pivot — it marked a full-fledged reset of global industrial power play.
The impact was immediate. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China’s manufacturing sector plunged by 27% in Q1 2025, according to Bloomberg Economics. Simultaneously, Vietnam recorded a 12% jump in new manufacturing investments, attracting $7.2 billion in the same period. Mexico raked in $18 billion in annual nearshoring investments, as U.S. firms looked to avoid Asian tariffs and shorten supply lines. Even Morocco and Ethiopia—long considered peripheral—began registering upticks in industrial investment, particularly in textiles and auto components. The global factory is on the move, and the world is realigning fast.
Across the Atlantic, Africa is no longer just watching—it is beginning to reposition. Captain Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso made waves by declaring his country a “Tax-Free Nation,” an audacious signal to global investors that West Africa is open for production—not just extraction. While his announcement stirred debates in Western diplomatic circles, it captured the attention of emerging-market investors. For once, an African leader wasn’t begging for aid—he was offering terms. The message was unmistakable: Africa can negotiate on its own terms, and those terms now include value creation.
And yet, amid this continental awakening, Nigeria—the giant of Africa—remains unsettlingly silent. Despite being blessed with 44 commercially viable solid minerals, over 84 million hectares of arable land, and the continent’s largest population, Nigeria continues to export cocoa and cashew, crude oil and lithium, only to import chocolate, petrol, starch, and batteries. Our ports are busy, yes—but mostly importing what we could have made. Our industrial zones are littered with potential. Our policies? Still stuck in an extraction-export loop that’s no longer tenable in today’s economic reality.
As Peter Drucker once said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” This is where Nigeria’s proposed 30% Minimum Value-Addition Policy becomes a defining lever of change. The policy mandates that no raw material shall leave Nigeria unless it has undergone at least 30% processing locally. It’s a game-changing shift from raw extraction to productive transformation. And it sends a strong global signal: Nigeria is no longer willing to be a pipeline of raw exports; it wants to be a hub of finished goods, job creation, and wealth retention.
This isn’t about protectionism — it’s about strategic leverage. If properly enforced, the policy will compel both local and international investors to build processing plants and value-adding infrastructure across Nigeria. The economic impact is measurable and massive. Conservative estimates project over ₦25 trillion ($25 billion) in industrial investments within five years, the creation of over 3 million jobs, and an increase in value-added exports from 12% today to 45% by 2030. It will also deepen intra-African trade under AfCFTA by positioning Nigeria not as a supplier of raw inputs but as a producer of intermediate and final products for the continent.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is not waiting. Ethiopia has already launched industrial parks focused on textiles and agro-processing. Rwanda now exports refined tantalum instead of raw coltan. Morocco dominates phosphate and fertilizer exports with over $5 billion in annual value. These countries are no longer passive participants in global trade. They are shaping it. And they are being rewarded for it.
As President Paul Kagame famously stated, “Africa’s story has been written by others; we need to own it and tell it ourselves.” Nigeria has everything it takes to lead this new narrative: a domestic market of over 200 million people, abundant raw materials, a tech-savvy youth population, and access to regional and global markets. What has been missing is the policy courage and institutional coordination to turn potential into productivity. The 30% Value-Addition Bill is a clear step in that direction. But it must move beyond legislative chambers and find life in the real economy—with budgetary support, executive buy-in, inter-agency alignment, and private-sector mobilization.
As former WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala once reminded the world, “Trade can be a force for good, but only when it is inclusive, fair, and value-enhancing.” This global trade reset will not wait for us to get ready. The U.S.–China tariff decoupling has already triggered a worldwide reallocation of manufacturing. The countries that act now will reap the long-term dividends. Those that hesitate will be locked into economic irrelevance.
Nigeria has a chance—not just to catch up—but to catch the lead. This is not a moment for hesitation. It is a moment for execution.
Let us not miss it.
